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How many raters does it take to make a million (part 4)

With the ticks counting and then not counting mess from before, it’s hard to evaluate whether we’re rating at the same speed. This particular step seemed to take inordinately long, though, so I think it means we’re actually slowing down.

Date: Fri, 12 Jan 2018 21:09:20 +0200 (EET)

#48 @Lubiere with 14227 takes total from 985782 to 1000009
#141 @laiti with 8530 takes total from 1994602 to 2003132
#285 @BoBoChamp with 5754 takes total from 2998023 to 3003777
#502 @Terminus with 3734 takes total from 3998284 to 4002018
#838 @obxdude10 with 2386 takes total from 4999961 to 5002347

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@Drake spent most of the time on the bubble, and has finally been pushed out:

Date: Sun, 4 Mar 2018 15:09:40 +0200

#47 Dogbrick with 14404 takes total from 985625 to 1000029
#138 radagast83 with 8723 takes total from 1996942 to 2005665
#278 JulienHuxley with 6008 takes total from 2997067 to 3003075
#488 shigadeyo with 3864 takes total from 3997821 to 4001685
#812 arkurzynski with 2460 takes total from 4997773 to 5000233

51 days seems slower than before, but I want to gather a few months more stats before I proclaim that as a reliable trend.


30 miserable days later, and we’ve just reached 50% of the way through the band.
#47 BeerandBlues2 with 14543 takes total from 992740 to 1007283, 50% of the way
It could be a spring lull, if your glass is half full.

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Last night, while I was in the pub…

Date: Wed, 2 May 2018 19:09:34 +0300 (EEST)
#46 mR_fr0g with 14829 takes total from 985175 to 1000004
#135 jredmond with 9004 takes total from 1998854 to 2007858
#271 Mora2000 with 6158 takes total from 2995104 to 3001262
#475 jrob21 with 4008 takes total from 3997048 to 4001056
#790 BDR with 2535 takes total from 4999997 to 5002532

59 days, pretty poor. Netcraft confirms BSD is dead…

Well you would expect it to slow down wouldn’t you? after each step you have less people in a bracket to work towards the next progression.

that is one argument, but it also depends on the concrete numbers, i.e. it makes a huge difference if, for instance, mR_fr0g takes the total from 999999 to 1014828 or from 985171 to 1000000). But yes, also the possible range of numbers increases each round (as we will go to the territory where all raters have 20k+ ratings, this makes quite a difference in expected duration of each period)

Taking an average of 7 ratings per days per person (which is the average our Top50 raters did in 2017), the next step would take 46 days. With this pace, the previous step would have been expected to last 45 days.

But then there’s festival season and it depends on backlogs etc.

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Yes, I would expect it to slow down exactly as I documented back in the 1st part of the thread, severl years ago. Which bit of the measured trend do you think is in accordance with that predicted trend?

I have no idea where that first thread is, do you have a link to the original prediction?

A plot of predicted vs. measured rate would certainly be interesting to see.

Graphs updated (sorry, I forgot I was in twin-monitor mode when I took the screenshot)

Note, the number highlighted in red is a fake number, I guestimated the date in order to just keep the curves smooth. See comments here: https://www.ratebeer.com/forums/how-many-raters-does-it-take-to-make-a-million-part-3_295094_10.htm (links to the previous parts of the thread are on the first page of that one).


  • The spacing out of the points on the 1st graph seem to show that there’s been a bit of a slowdown, but they’d be expected to spread out simply because there are fewer people contributing to the band.
  • The number of ratings per year to stay in a band is mostly unchanged. The 5 million band (those contributing ratings 4M-5M) slowed down, fewer than 700 ratings per year are required to stay there.
  • The work done per day in a band is showing a steady drop, in particular in the 5 million band, namely the 1500 people with between 2500 and 4000 ratings. The people who should be the bread and butter contributors to this site.
  • Of course, as there are fewer people in each band, the above would be expected to decrease. However, scaling per person, as per the 4th graph, shows that whilst the long-term trend (now with more than 2 years of data) seems positive, since autumn there’s been a fall in rating rate. Note that last year had a winter dip too - festival season’s about to start in earnest, so it could pick up. If I’m still doing this in a year, I’ll do some Y-on-Y charts too, to see what the seasonal trends are.
  • Finally, note that the way I’m banding the raters into bands of a million ratings really isn’t the best way to analyse behaviour, but it’s what makes a more fun stat, so I’ll stick with it, a vaguely meaningful analysis is secondary to the simple stat-twattery.

Also note that some top raters have quit rating or entering ratings. RLGK for instance and myself.

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oh6gdx stopped when he became a commercial brewer (a shame, I trust him to be honest).
And of course #metoo.

@fatphil why did you quit?

Lots of reasons, too many to list. Mostly because with my browsers on my computers (which includes my phone), RB simply doesn’t work at all. The phone, the only device common to all beer tasting and all beer hunting, has yielded nothing apart from internal server errors or simply blank pages for several months. That in combination with the fact that these changes for the worse have happened at the same time that actual bugs that are years old are still not being fixed.

Exactly my reasons as well. As long as nothing actually improves around here I’m done. Apart from the Euro Swap beers of course, as one of the rules is to rate those so that’ll be my only ratings. Otherwise I’m back to excel. Also, I’ve stopped entering beers. Can’t be bothered anymore since I’m not rating them on the site anyway.

This is how ratebeer dies. The bugs and negligence of Joet & co. continue to demotivate hitherto active users. Ratebeer was always proud of its great database, but you need active contributing users to maintain such a database.
The quality of this site depends on its admins and active users, I don’t think the current ratebeer bosses sufficiently realise this.


This in spades!


<*))))))><[quote=“marcodl, post:17, topic:2870, full:true”]
This is how ratebeer dies. The bugs and negligence of Joet & co. continue to demotivate hitherto active users. Ratebeer was always proud of its great database, but you need active contributing users to maintain such a database.
The quality of this site depends on its admins and active users, I don’t think the current ratebeer bosses sufficiently realise this.

I only use my phone for RB–an iPhone 8–and, while there are bugs andnweird glitches, it has not prevented me from rating and doing all the RB stuff the site is supposed to do. While there are things I would like fixed, the usability of the site has not greatly diminished for me.

I might not be a top rater, but stepped away from the rating game, currently ticking without text on untappd.

Will continue with the place ratings, since that part of the site always have helped me the most.

I have the same experience. I use an Iphone7 with Safari, and Chrome-Firefox on my 3 computers, ranging from Windows 7 to 10, and had no issues at all. I’m quite perplexed about why people experience so many errors.

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Only use my phone (IPhone 6S) for checking up on beers, no rating.
Works most of the time.

Do most of my rating on my IPad, lately seach have been looking like this:

Impressive, right ?


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