RateBeer Forums

Trouble looming ahead

#1

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2018-12-11/megabrew-s-megadebt-is-a-megaproblem

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#2

hmmmm, stocks are a proxy for predicting what will happen tomorrow. I don’t think these people are doing a good job actually understanding the beer market, both globally and domestically. Its not a rosy future for Big Beer but I wouldn’t call it grim. May be a good time to buy some of their stock soon.

#3

Stocks are a proxy for predicting what other people think will happen tomorrow. Where the other people are mostly clones of you. And none of you are real people, you’re stupid quants.

If interest rates are low, huge debt doesn’t look like a huge problem, but still, the debt/EBITDA ratio for ABI is way higher than a sane investor would consider nothing to worry about, and way higher than ABI themselves have said they’re happy with. (it’s about 5, and they want it under 2, IIRC).

This is not investment advice, but as we’re in a bubble of almost everything, I’d be wary of buying anything “soon”. Unless your soon means “after the crash that’s not quite upon us”.

Oh, and HODL!