Two authorities cited Bart from BA and Matt Simpson are quoted here. Both agree that a crowding or slowing market doesn’t signal impending implosion.
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The LA piece was from WAPO. Hopefully WAPO lasts a bit longer.
““The majority of brewers entering the marketplace are making good beer,” Simpson said, “but a few bad apples can spoil the whole bunch.””
Well, Cold Spring brewing has been giving it a heck of a shot, but so far craft beer survives.
Looking at the numbers in that (WaPo) article, the deaths are still happening at a healthy rate. You need culling to help keep the standards high. There will be overshoot, there always is, but your steady state looks like it can easily be higher than where you currently are. (The cheap supporting argument for that is that numbers were stable in the past with a higher number of breweries, but the world was a very different place back then, it’s not directly comparable.)
Are you sure about that? I believe we very well could be at an all-time high number of commercial breweries.
I’m indeed not sure, I’m only found data back 100 years, and was extrapolating from European countries’ histories for the same time period, and 1850s were often double the 1900s. Note that #breweries per capita is a very different stat from #breweries absolute. (And in the 1850s, the US population wasn’t even a 10th of what it is today). But that’s part of the “not directly comparable” aspect. Population distribution is intimately tied to population.