Cannabis accounts for some of the reduction because people only have so much recreational money to spend, but it’s a secondary factor at most. The bourbon boom (along with seltzers) is the driving factor. Take a look around party stores. They’re stocked nothing like they were 10 years ago. Craft beer has lost immense shelf space to bourbon, other high-end spirits, seltzers, etc. I remember looking forward to going to Binny’s while in Chicago. Nowadays I don’t bother. People’s preferences change, just as they have over time since the end of prohibition.
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As my first line says, there are a lot of factors for the current decline. Spirits, mixed drinks, costs, and beer alternatives are definitely some
I’m not taking about the current decline but the upcoming (potential) devastation.
Do you think Gen Z and later are going to get into bourbon (or spirits) instead of craft beer? Or at a higher rate then millennials and Gen X? I doubt it.
With the youngest Gen Z at 12 right now and in a decade the oldest would be 37, I have a real hard time seeing that generation, in the next decade, getting into craft beer at the same rate. If there is even a 5% decline on top of millennials and Gen X drinking less as they age, this would be a big blow to craft beer. And I would say, a big part of the reduced rate of craft beer adoption is the cost/access to cannabis. I also think that Gen Z considers cannabis less unhealthy than alcohol.
Frankly, it would be easy to look at the density of brewpubs vs dispensaries in college towns of states like CA and CO (states with longer legalization). I’d be pretty sure that dispensaries are significantly higher.
Next time everyone visits a brewpub or beer bar at prime time, just count how many people get ID”ed. I just went to Monk’s in Philly on a Friday evening recently. It really felt like I was the youngest (41) person there aside from the employees.
It’s not good to look at your son bc he grew up with craft beer craziness. Like my kids will. They are a lot more likely to keep drinking craft. But the average parents, I don’t know.
Also, isn’t your son a millennial? He didn’t grow up with legal recreational cannabis. Every 12-year-old in MD will have the next decade to ask parents about the dispensaries they walk/drive by (my neighborhood already has 3). For them, it will be a normal thing.
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“Do you think Gen Z and later are going to get into bourbon (or spirits) instead of craft beer? Or at a higher rate then millennials and Gen X? I doubt it.”
Yes. Preferences are cyclical, even in the aggregate, and there are far more 20-somethings trading bourbon (and even tequila and rum) on fb pages than there were 10 years ago. Frankly, I’m right there with them. I still enjoy good craft beer, but I consume much less of it. Good bourbon is just as good or better, has no carbonation, and takes up far less volume. It doesn’t upset my stomach the same way a few pints of (D)IPAs do.
Gin, vodka, and rum took off with Gen Xers, who wanted to drink something different than the scotch and bourbon their Boomer predecessors did. Heaven Hill talks about this during their tour, and it was the main reason they diversified their spirits to include 100+ non-bourbons.
“I also think that Gen Z considers cannabis less unhealthy than alcohol.”
And they’re correct.
I was surprised to read this. However, I think your anecdotal experience is not representative.
Gen Z drinks the lowest share of spirits of any age group under 70.
I can’t see the data in your link because it requires a membership, but based on the link below, you may be misinterpreting the data. Gen Z drinks less than any other generation, so you would expect them to drink the lowest share of spirits. That doesn’t mean that the proportions of what they are drinking aren’t changing.
Also relevant. This substantiates my assertion that preferences have changed generationally.
“During the 1970s, distillers sat on millions of barrels of inventory just as consumer preferences turned to lighter, un-aged spirits like and vodka. In contrast, bourbon’s recent growth has come during a time of unprecedented competition — whether from other whiskey subcategories (such as rye) or other distilled spirits. Far from slowing down, last year’s mammoth production coincided with record bourbon sales, which have only continued in 2020.”
Here is one more relevant link. I concede that online purchasing may not be representative of Gen Z’s overall purchasing preferences, but they buy more alcohol online than any other generation, and it’s the best (free) data I could find.
“The majority tried wine and gin during the pandemic,” says Mariana Fletcher, the head of analytics and insights at IWSR Drinks Market Analysis. Still, “They are more likely to drink tequila, Champagne, and pre-mixed cocktails than the average alcohol consumer. They are less likely to have beer, though that is still common among a large minority.”
